June Non Farm Payrolls Day | XAUUSD Analysis: The Golden Barricades at $1907/1926

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) price is back to $1866 zone, where it was on 06 May, 2022 on NFP Day. In my analysis published last month, this is what I had mentioned: Non Farm Payrolls Day May 2022: Spot Gold Analysis: XAUUSD: $1866/1836 or $1907/1926? Result: Gold touched the mark of 1907 and then crashed till $1787 mark in less than 10 days. BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP ( Net Average Profit):

S2 ZONE 1846 | DOWN TREND (Below 1840) : 1836/1818/1800/1777 stops
R2 ZONE 1907 | UP TREND (After 1909) : 1916-1926-1947 stops

Analysis 06.05.2022 Review: 1909 was well achieved, hence sell limits hit at 1909 gave handsome profits at 1836. 1836/1818/1800 buy limits hit on 11 May – 16 May, 2022, and today GOLD is at 1866, proving accuracy of our analysis once again.

Following the key levels mentioned in my analysis dated 06.05.2022: buying Gold at following price zones in last one month gave good returns:
($) 1836, 1818, 1808, 1790 and made an exit in net average profit of all trades

Selling Gold at following price zones in last three days proved a wise idea:
($) 1855, 1866 and made an exit in net average profit of all trades
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS | CMP $1866 | 03.06.2022

Thursday’s strong advance in XAUUSD was on the back of rising open interest and opens the door to further gains in the very near term. Against that, the precious metal faces a tough resistance around the $1,866 level per ounce troy. Gold traders are facing barricades at around $1,866.00 amid cautious trading added with risk-on mood sentiments over the US NFP. The DXY has slipped below 101.70 on positive market sentiment. The ADP Research Institute has reported addition of 128k jobs in the labour market, significantly lower than the estimates of 300k. It is worth noting that the US labour market is at its peak levels and employment generation may get slower amid less scope for growth. Therefore, investors should brace for a slower job growth rate. As per the market consensus, the US NFP is seen at 325k. The gold price is performing well against the greenback as investors are expecting that the actual NFP figure won’t even justify the consensus. A lower than expected job addition will fetch significant offers to the US dollar index (DXY). Currently, the DXY is oscillating below 101.70, and more downside looks possible considering the strength of the bears on the counter.

The greenback changed course on Thursday and gave up all of its Wednesday gains and more. Easing government bond yields and tepid US employment-related figures put pressure on the American currency, later weighed by the positive tone of Wall Street. However, it is always wise to stay cautious, as they say: Don’t always believe in what they show you, be cautious, implement money management and be ready for a reversal which may come as a surprise resulting in heavy drawdown.

US 10 Year yields stand at 2.915, USDJPY at 129.94, XAUXAG ratio at 83.50 and Dollar Index at 101.737 at the time of writing.
How to trade Spot Gold XAUUSD on NFP data today?

Bearish Scenario: Gold Stops: $1836/1818/1777, once again?
If the bearish momentum extends, gold price could fall further towards 1836 (after 1842) with 1818/1777 as final destination, if Gold crash halts at 1836 or 1818 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 12 trading days.

Bullish Scenario: Gold Stops: $1907/1926/1947?
If the Bullish momentum pushes Gold price across $1888 barrier, $1907 and $1926 can be the next target for Gold, opening way to $1947.
Heading into the NFP showdown today, gold price is under a price trap of 1836-1866 zone, as investors are less hesitant to place fresh bets due to ongoing saga of risk-on mood. The US NFP will emerge as the main market driver for gold price today.

A break above $1907 after M1 M5 23.6 retracement format, might result in price trap of $1926-$1947 on a longer run and a further bullish trend might help GOLD bulls to achieve $1947-1966 zone. However a crash below $1842 might open gates for $1836 (after S2), $1818/1777 zone before retracement is achieved at 23.6 M5, M15/M30 in next 12 days.

TRADING STRATEGY:
Observe price at US OPENING SS1 and then US SS2
Observe S2-S3/S4 zone and R2-R3 zone for reversals/retracement, Target NAP
Do not enter between the S/R zones or in pivot zone
Observe: FIB 23.6% on M5 and M15 TF for NAP target price
after 30/60/90/120 minutes of NFP

Price of Focus (POF)

Crash scenario:
S2 -6/9 RT NAP
S3 -3/6 RT NAP
S4 -6 RT NAP

Rise scenario:
R2+6/9 RT NAP
R3+3/6 RT NAP
R4+6 RT NAP

Implement RM till 30 after 15/30 min. and price gap 12/18/24 after NFP
Implement GR/SM after $25/40 price movement from CMP at NFP data
Golden Ratio based money management should not be used at least till $24 price movement in any direction, if SM needs to be ignored.

Kindly observe the crucial limits/stops levels mentioned by me in this analysis in addition to possible crash and rise zones highlighted in

Today, I will prefer to BUY session/daily lows below Support zone (-3/6/9 pattern) S3 and S4, and I will prefer to SELL above Resistance zones 2 and 3 with a target of NET average profit, if fundamentals support and favour the same.
Movement of 25/40 or 60 dollars on Gold price is not something unexpected nowadays, and a surprise on Monday during early trading hours can not be ruled out too, so closing all positions today in net average profit is always the best trading strategy for every trader who wants to safeguard his principle. I expect A pattern in next 12 days.

BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP ( Net Average Profit):

S2 ZONE 1847 | DOWN TREND (Below 1842) : 1836/1818/1800/1777 BUY LIMITS
R2 ZONE 1907 | UP TREND (After 1911) : 1916-1926-1947 SELL LIMITS

It is always wise to first PLAN THE TRADE, and then TRADE THE PLAN! Hence, it is suggested to first observe the crash or rise with specific zones and levels in mind on the basis of various fundamental and technical parameters mentioned above, before entering a trade in a specific direction with a target of net average profit in a specific set of trades.

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