Gold Price rebounds as $ correction phase begins
Read my analysis dated 04 May 2022 (FOMC Day) here.
Yesterday, I alerted in my analysis the following pattern for traders:
Key Highlights for today:
Gold Price is capitalizing on an overdue correction in the US dollar, as the Fed poured cold water on aggressive tightening bets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly said Wednesday that the US central bank is not considering a 75 bps rate hike in June, sounding a less hawkish tone than markets had expected. The US Treasury yields also took a beating while the Wall Street indices gallops on a risk-on market profile. The dollar also felt the pain from reduced demand for safe havens, aiding the Gold Price rebound. Looking forward, the US Nonfarm Payrolls will offer fresh insights on the Fed’s forward guidance. In the meantime, the broader market sentiment and China’s covid lockdowns-led growth fears will continue to influence gold trades.
Technical:
GOLD approaching D1E1 CMP above H1E2 M5S5
M15 S5 E1 | M30 S5E1E2 | H1 E2 E2 S5 in sequence as next crash stops
(after rejection from 1907/1917-1926 zone)
1866 proved a major support yesterday, immediate FRT to 1888/1907 was well observed just like last week. V pattern completed: as alerted in my analysis dated 04 May 2022.
Formation of A pattern in process.
RT pattern
M15/M30 S5 might be next stops
SR Pattern
Currently at R2
+/-6: R2/R3 crucial zone for S entries
Crucial Stops:
GOLD still struggling to hold 1900 psychological level
As alerted in earlier posts, heavy selling below 1866 was observed
Result: Retail Traders lost
Today, 1907/1926 looks as rise stop | 1888-1866 well established as crash stops
06.05.2022: NFP: STAY ALERT
RTFIB
The Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,888 zone will be on the sellers’ radars If the pullback gathers steam.
Today my POF will be selling above R2/R3 (above mentioned) zones, in case of reversal: buying below 1888-1866 (S1/S2 -6/9)
TARGET NAP
Currency Strength
ÜSD 75
JPY 40
AUD 23
CAD 85
EUR 61
GBP 20
Fundamental:
A sudden UP rally is quite possible due to uncertainty + Russia-Ukraine related statements | NFP Data might trigger HV event tomorrow at 16.30, it will be wise to avoid heavy lots, and will be worth waiting for NFP data based rally, considering yesterday ADP NFP was negative.
BOE Inflation Report
BOE Interest Rate today: 15.00 hours
Volatility of $6-10 expected, US pre opening pressures might add more volatility at 16.30 hours
Important Dates:
06 May 2022
A sudden trigger + rally in JPY possible on or before 12 May 2022 (completion of Market cycle M1, and earning season results + BOND BUYING cut off)
DXY 102.688 RT phase
US 10YT 2.940
USDJPY 129.40
XAUXAG 82.22
As alerted in advance:
After hitting the strong support zone of 1866, with a low at 1862 S zone, GOLD reversed furiously towards 1888/1907 zones, and was well alerted by me in advance as the rise stops: Gold struggled well at 1888 zone, before marching towards 1907 zone, CMP 1901, today’s high 1903
V pattern after completion of A pattern on M30 H1 H4 was well achieved yesterday with stops at 1888 followed by R2 + 6= 1896, and 1907 R zone.
In addition D1E2 and D1618 proved to be major support for GOLD price and I alerted well in advance quoting this level as RT zone.
As quoted yesterday: The next upside target for buyers is envisioned $1,907/1926.
In addition, I also alerted on 27 April 2022: Dramatic rallies are on the way, APRIL end + first week of MAY always have been volatile for GOLD traders considering Rate Hike policy, NFP and monetary policy related statements on the way.
Analytical explanation of the above: based on the price movement in GOLD on and after the rate hikes:
2016
Date of Hike: 14 Dec. 2016
XAUUSD on 01 Dec 2016: $1170
XAUUSD on 14 Dec. 2016: $ 1125
XAUUSD on 14 Jan. 2017: $1190
XAUUSD on 14 March 2017: $1188
Pattern traced: V extension in 90 days
2017
Date of Hike: 14 June 2017
XAUUSD on 01 June 2017: $1290
XAUUSD on 14 June 2017: $1240
XAUUSD on 14 July 2017: $1258
XAUUSD on 14 Sept. 2017: $1346
Pattern traced: V extension in 90 days
Date of Hike: 13 December 2017
XAUUSD on 01 December 2017: $1280
XAUUSD on 14 December 2017: $1236
XAUUSD on 14 January 2018: $1330
XAUUSD on 14 March. 2018: $1303
Pattern traced: V extension, A 30RT in 90 days
Date of Hike: 13 June 2018
XAUUSD on 01 June 2018: $1290
XAUUSD on 14 June 2018: $1279
XAUUSD on 14 July 2018: $1247
XAUUSD on 14 Aug. 2018: $1160 (year low)
XAUUSD on 130 Nov. 2018: $1260
Pattern traced: V pattern in 150+ days
Date of Hike: 19 December 2018
XAUUSD on 01 December 2018: $1230
XAUUSD on 19 December 2018: $1273
XAUUSD on 19 January 2018: $1300
XAUUSD on 14 March. 2018: $1330
Pattern traced: V extension in 90 days $100
Date of Hike: 05 May 2022
XAUUSD on 01 May 2022: $1903
XAUUSD on 05 May 2022: $1890 (after FOMC) RT from S1 1862 (1866 zone)
XAUUSD on 06 May 2022: $1907
XAUUSD on 20 May 2022:
Pattern traced: V extension in 90 minutes after Fed Rate Decision and during FOMC
