NFP Day: Most Accurate Spot Gold XAUUSD Price Forecast: $1666/1636 or $1717/1735 next?
Analysis 05.08.2022 Accuracy Summary and Review:
Buying and Selling Spot Gold (XAUUSD) at the key price entry levels (+/-5) mentioned in my analysis dated 05.08.2022 with a target of net average profit in each set: in last 30 days gave good results: ($) Sell: 1777| Buy: 1735, 1717, 1685 zones, yesterday’s low: $1688. CMP $1700.
As projected in my analysis dated 05.08.2022:
XAUUSD Bearish Scenario: $1735/1717, once again?
If the bearish momentum extends, gold price may fall further towards 1735/1717 zone (after 1760) with 1735/1717/1685 (1666 zone) as next stops, if Gold crash halts at 1717/1666 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 7 trading days.
Buy and Sell Stops/Limits projected in 05.08.2022 analysis:
D1 TF PRSR: BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP200P ( Net Average Profit):
S2 ZONE 1777 | DOWN TREND (Below 1758) : 1735/1717/1666/1636 BUY LIMITS
R2 ZONE 1818| UP TREND (After 1816) : 1818/1836/1866/1888 SELL LIMITS
Spot Gold price failed to cross $1816 mark, and hence selling from $1758 or buying at the buying levels projected in the analysis: both proved accurate with target of 200 pips, each.
05.08.2022 Analysis Review and Accuracy Summary: Gold price touched the mark of $1807 on 10 August 2022, and crashed till $1777 zone, followed by further crash till $1735, $1700 and $1688 (01.09.2022 low).
Read August NFP Day Analysis dated 05.08.2022 here.
Spot gold price forecast & analysis | XAUUSD: CMP $1700| 02.09.2022
Key Points:
- Spot Gold price broke below the $1735 and $1700 threshold and fell to a fresh one-month low of $1,688.71 a troy ounce as the dollar extended its rally at the beginning of the new month.
- Concerns about slowing global growth and overheated inflation maintained speculative interest on the defensive and away from riskier assets, moreover after China put 21 million people under lockdown.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 52.8 in August, beating the expected 52, signalling economic expansion. Furthermore, the Prices Paid registered 52.5, down 7.5 points compared to the July figure of 60 and the lowest reading since June 2020.
- Focusing on the risk-off market environment, the ECB is also seen hiking rates by 75 bps next week.
Figure 4: Reading Summary: XAUUSD | CMP $1700
Dollar Index is holding 109.500 zone, US 10YT at 3.248, XAUXAG ratio at 95.05 and USDJPY is holding 140.00 zone. Last time when DXY crossed 109.00 mark on 21 July 2022: Gold price crashed till $1680, and the same was observed on 01.09.2022, Gold price crashed till $1688.00 crashing from $1735 and $1717 zone in the last 72 hours.
How to trade Spot Gold XAUUSD on NFP data today?
XAUUSD Bearish Scenario: $1666/1636?
If the bearish momentum extends, gold price may fall further towards 1666/1636 zone (after 1675) with 1666/1636/1616/1575 (1616 zone) as next stops, if Gold crash halts at 1677/1666 zone a reversal can be expected with a RT 23.6 on M5 and M15 30% RT before/in next 7 trading days.
XAUUSD Bullish Scenario: $1717/1735, once again?
If the Bullish momentum pushes Gold price across $1712 barrier, $1717 and $1742 (1735 zone) can be the next target for Gold, opening way to $1777 zone.
Heading into the NFP show today, Spot Gold price is under a price trap of 1680-1707 zone, as investors are less hesitant to place fresh bets due to ongoing uncertainty and confusions related to FED monetary policy and rising Yields & Dollar strength. The US NFP will emerge as one of the main market driver for gold price and FED rate forecasts scheduled to be announced on 21 September, 2022.
Technical Analysis | XAUUSD CMP $1700 | 02.09.2022
Gold Price – Key Indicators, Factors, Price Zones & SR (D1) (W1) Levels to watch:
| SMA | |
| H1 SMA50 | 1706 |
| H1 EMA100 | 1717 |
| H1 EMA200 | 1729 |
| H4 SMA50 | 1733 |
| H4 EMA100 | 1741 |
| H4 EMA200 | 1754 |
| Daily SMA50 | 1753 |
| Daily EMA100 | 1794 |
| Daily EMA200 | 1814 |
| SR ZONES D1 | |
| R1 | 1702 |
| R2 | 1715 |
| R3 | 1729 |
| R4 | 1738 |
| R5 | 1752 |
| S1 | 1693 |
| S2 | 1679 |
| S3 | 1665 |
| S4 | 1656 |
| S5 | 1642 |
| SR ZONES TF MN | |
| R1 | 1722 |
| R2 | 1760 |
| R3 | 1797 |
| R4 | 1820 |
| R5 | 1858 |
| S1 | 1699 |
| S2 | 1661 |
| S3 | 1624 |
| S4 | 1601 |
| S5 | 1563 |
PRSDBS ZONE SR MN H4 BASED TRADING SCENARIOS | XAUUSD CMP $1700
Figure 5: Reading Summary: XAUUSD | CMP $1700
A crash below $1699 might result in $1661 and $1624 price stops before crashing till $1600, retracement patterns might look like: $1624, $1661 and $1700. A rise above $1699 might result in $1722 and $1760, retracement $1760-1722-1700.
TRADING STRATEGY:
- Observe price at US OPENING SS1 and then US SS2
- Observe S2/S3 zone and R2/R3 zone for reversals/retracement, Target NAP
- Do not enter between the pivot zone
- Observe: FIB 23.6% on M5 and M15 TF for NAP target price
after 30/60/90/120 minutes of NFP and $9/15/21/30 price movement sets
Long term: 9(Short term)/36 (Long term) days for a V pattern formation for NAP exit
Movement of 30/60 or 90 dollars on Gold price is not something unexpected nowadays, and a surprise on Monday during early trading hours can not be ruled out too, so closing all positions today in net average profit is always the best trading strategy for every trader who wants to safeguard his principle.
I expect V pattern (from the crash price at 16.30 hours today) in next 9 days (short terms target) and 36 trading days (Long term target). XAUUSD CMP $1700.
D1 TF PRSR: BUY/SELL STOPS | BUY/SELL LIMITS: TARGET NAP300 P ( Net Average Profit):
S2/S3 ZONE 1666 | DOWN TREND (Below 1675) : 1680/1666/1650/1636 | BUY LIMITS
R2 ZONE 1717| UP TREND (Above 1711) : 1717/1735/1755/1777 | SELL LIMITS
Terms: TF: Time Frame | RT: Retracement | SR: Support Resistance | NAP: Net Average Profit
It is always wise to first PLAN THE TRADE, and then TRADE THE PLAN!
Hence, it is suggested to first observe the crash or rise with specific zones and levels in mind on the basis of various fundamental and technical parameters mentioned above, before entering a trade in a specific direction with a target of net average profit in a specific set of trades.
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